After the Troops Have Gone

Shalom All,

I have, since this operation began, said that Israel's goal could not be the cessation of rocket fire from Gaza. I noted that the very moment that the last Israeli soldier who entered during this conflict leaves Gaza, rockets will be launched into Israel. Some may be launched in spite, just to have the last word. Others will be launched by militants not under Hamas control. Most will be launched because Hamas really has no desire to have the rockets stop and will not act to prevent anyone from doing so because it does not want peace with Israel, much less FOR Israel.

What is peace? Peace is not threatening to go to war if demands are not met. Peace is not simply an opportunity to increase your ability to wage war in the future. Peace as it is defined by the terms Shalom in Hebrew and Salaam in Arabic is not only the absence of violence, but the absence of the threat of violence. It is a time of well-being. That is the goal of Israel and, I believe, the goal of the vast majority of Palestinians. That is the goal of a long term cease fire.

That peace is also far from what is occurring on the ground in Gaza now as arms flow in from Egypt through fortified smuggling tunnels not destroyed in Israel's operations, through rockets and mortars continually fired into Israel or through belligerent rhetoric uttered by the leadership of Hamas. The Palestinians themselves are not remotely at peace with one another. There is a state of civil war between Hamas, leaders of Gaza, and the Palestinian Authority which leads the West Bank. Hamas took the opportunity during the last few weeks to arrest, maim, and murder dozens of its Palestinian opponents in Gaza. This, brings me to a major problem.

There is no one who can represent the Palestinian people with any legitimacy. Hamas won parliamentary elections fair and square. Why? Because their opponents in the election, the Palestinian Authority, which is simply a descendent of the Palestinian Liberation Organization led by Yassir Arafat were so hopelessly corrupted that the one thing that could be assured in their leadership was that aid would not reach the people, but would end up the pockets and bank accounts of the PA leadership. Mrs. Arafat had a nice fat $600 million in her bank account when Yassir died. Isn't it nice to know where our aid money ended up?

Well, enter Hamas. Hamas was known to care about the Palestinian people. Then ran and run schools and hospitals as well as a number of social service agencies. Hamas also runs the smuggling tunnels bringing everything from militants and weaponry to cattle (yes, CATTLE) and electronics, from medical supplies to fuel, into Gaza and they get to charge money for all of it. They make a lot more money when the regular borders are closed than they do when they are open.

The argument that somehow smuggling will slow if and when the regular borders open is grossly naive. First of all, Hamas has an incentive to force them to shut, which is why there is almost always an attack at one of the border crossings within a few days of their being opened. Such an attack forces the crossings closed and makes the smuggling tunnels the only means to import and export and they are controlled by Hamas. Second, smuggling will not end if the borders were to open simply because not all things can cross those borders when they are open, such as weaponry, other armaments, drugs and militants. In fact, not needing to bring other items in through the tunnels simply lowers the price to bring in these things. The result would eventually be another series of battles, borders closed, more deaths and more suffering.

Clearly, the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza must be relieved. Life there with both Egypt and Israel forced to shut their borders with Gaza is never going to be good. That said, life for Israelis, if Hamas is able to continually increase its strength and ability to strike out and harm them, will get worse. Things cannot stay the way that they are. If indeed Hamas will not renounce its pledge to destroy Israel and expel or kill all of the Jews living therein, there can be no real peace. The stronger Hamas is allowed to become, the more powerful militarily or prosperous financially, the greater the threat to Israel's peace becomes and the average Palestinian suffers in any conflict between them.

Why is Israel not bringing Fatah back into Gaza? Why not say, "We will not negotiate with Hamas at all? We will only negotiate with the leadership of the Palestinian Authority?" Why not empower the PA? Only negotiate with the PA? If there is a true civil war in Gaza, why not help the side you prefer?

I suggested a week ago that Israel demand that the PA reoccupy Gaza before it withdrew a single soldier. Why not have an entire force of Fatah allied troops enter Gaza under Israeli cover into the areas that were under Israeli control? Why not demand as Egypt did a couple of weeks ago that the PA take control over all of the border crossings? Let Fatah, the Palestinian Authority, battle Hamas?

Unfortunately, I would imagine that it did and that the PA is not willing to reenter Gaza. Hamas has won the Palestinian civil war. The result is a far stronger Hamas, not worried about being removed from power. I believe that this is catastrophic both for the hopes for peace and for the Palestinian people who will have no good hope of improvement in their lives. Will Israel be MORE inclined to relax border control after the event if Hamas stays in power and has an increased ability to threaten it? Hardly. Life will continue to be terrible.

How do things get better? That is relatively easy to answer, but very hard to accomplish. Israel has already accomplished some of the task, but unfortunately it needs help. The first step is to remove or drastically reduce Hamas' ability to smuggle over the Egyptian border. It is truly not weaponry that keeps Hamas in power, but its ability to smuggle in other things and to functionally prop up the economy through clandestine efforts that bring it income while at the same time destroying the hope of others to acquire prosperity by means outside of Hamas' control. If the borders were truly open and goods could truly flow, Hamas would be far weaker. Prosperity would also weaken the resolve of Palestinians to continue to fight to eradicate Israel.

If you have businesses to run and family events to attend and enjoy, you are not inclined to drop everything in order to pick a fight or to maintain a fight that undermines both your ability to have, much less run, your business or to enjoy your family. It is therefore in Hamas' interest in furthering its goal of destroying Israel, not just "freeing Gaza," to threaten Israel's security to the point that it must shut its borders. By removing Hamas' alternative supply lines, you eliminate the financial and political gain obtained by forcing Israel to shut the borders.

If indeed the United States, Egypt, and the European Union can effectively reduce the smuggling trade coming into Gaza from Egypt, things will move a long way toward peace. Hamas will need the legitimate borders open and might even work to enforce a peace, which leads me to a reality that all too many people seem to forget.

The difference between desiring war and desiring peace is that desiring war, you cheer on those trying to harm your enemy; while desiring peace, you actively try to prevent harm to your enemy, even using lethal force against your own people in order to prevent that harm being done.
The real question that lies before us is not "Is there a desire to create a lasting peace?" but instead "Is there a will to make it happen?" The answer to the first question is "Yes."

I'm not sure what the answer to the second question is, but I'm not optimistic.

-D