What did Israel learn in Lebanon? Eighteen lessons.
1. Israel cannot fight wars through public opinion. The other side can fabricate lies that the press and too many others will leap to believe. People around the world are anti-Jewish and very anti-Israel. (Fox News' interview of the NYTimes correspondent in Gaza demonstrated an embarrassing bias that virtually negates any possibility of truth being contained in NYTimes reports from Gaza, what a surprise).
2. The moment the first shot is fired, the clock is ticking on how long Israel has to accomplish its aims before the US gives in to demands for a cease fire, which US allies will demand immediately, and pressures Israel to give in.
3. The moment anyone dies, Palestinians will claim that a "Massacre of Civilians" has occurred. This will shift world opinion against Israel and will press Israel into a cease fire regardless of whether or not a "massacre" ever occurred. Twice in Lebanon alone Israel was forced to end its operations because of fabricated "massacres" of civilians. In its last real incursion into Gaza, Palestinians fabricated the "Jenin Massacre" which never happened in order to sway public opinion against Israel. There is a virtual guarantee that at least one "Massacre" that did not happen will be blamed upon Israel during this current event.
4. Hamas and Hizballah will hide militants and weaponry in civilian targets and among civilians so as to discourage Israel from attacking those targets and guaranteeing immunity for anything and anyone so surrounded. Condemnation has never come from the world press against either Hamas or Hizballah for deliberately endangering civilians.
5. Damaging Hamas or Hizballah accomplishes nothing significant. Fundamental harm must be done. Leaders must be eliminated and the ability for these organizations to rearm must be curtailed dramatically.
6. Avoiding civilian casualties and harm to civilian infrastructure enables militants to avoid critical blows and therefore both Hamas and Hizballah overwhelmingly concentrate their forces and arms caches in civilian areas.
7. In order to win, Israel has no chance but to attack those elements in those areas regardless of civilian casualties. Why? Because it cannot allow organizations to hide essential military targets among civilians and civilians need to make sure that they do not allow themselves to become human shields. Those who choose to endanger themselves by protecting military assets become, by the way, combatants and no longer should be seen as civilians at all. Someone who protects a military asset is by definition a combatant.
8. In order to avoid as many civilian casualties as possible ground forces are essential.
9. The press in Gaza is entirely biased against Israel and must be weathered. Israel cannot allow the war to be one over hearts and minds. It must be fought based upon the real logistics on the ground.
10. The goal of any ground incursion must be the installation of a new regime in the area. Leaving Hizballah in place was a disaster. Israel cannot leave Hamas as the de facto rulers of Gaza. Following this incursion, Israel and Egypt must take over control of the Western border and the PA, including significant troops, must be reinstated in Gaza. This must be done in order to demonstrate that Israel was not fighting the Palestinians, but only their oppressors and its enemies, Hamas.
11. Israel cannot allow any fight to be a fair fight. It needs to use overwhelming force, disproportionate force.
12. Its goal should be, as any army's should be, to limit its own casualties while inflicting not a minimum on its enemy, but a maximum upon its enemies.
13. The end here needs to be either Hamas surrender or its functional death. Nothing short of that will result in a true victory.
14. The concept that "it cannot be won militarily" is not true and the alternative "it can be won diplomatically" has proven dramatically false.
15. Arab nations support Israel against Hamas but cannot do so publicly or else they will face militant attacks in their own nations.
16. News media will equate the truth as reported by presumably unbiased reporters with lies fabricated by known to be biased ones. Where only likely biased reports are available, the media will tend to limit their exposure. Thus, it is better to prevent unbiased reporters from reporting along with the biased ones than to allow biased reporters to be challenged as the conflict develops.
17. The United Nations is entirely useless as far as the Israelis are concerned, because the UN will stand up for Israel's enemies.
18. When Israel needs something done, it has to do it itself and cannot rely on its allies, including the United States, to support its actions.
Saturday, January 3, 2009
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