Update on Gaza - What Next?

Shalom All,

I thought it a good idea to provide a bit of an update. Israel seems to be on track to functionally reoccupy Gaza. Within days, it will have full control of all border crossings, including smuggling tunnels, and will have isolated Hamas to the point that its remaining fighters will be more concerned with their own lives than with achieving Hamas' objectives.

Israel has done a tremendous job of limiting the rocket fire coming from Gaza into Israel. How? First, it struck Hamas' ability to coordinate strikes by essentially taking down the cell phone system in Gaza. Second, it took out smuggling tunnels which limited Hamas' ability to rearm. Third, struck weapons depots and eliminated a substantial percentage of Hamas fighting force in initial attacks. Fourth, it invaded the North of Gaza first which functionally prevented the use of Grad rockets aimed at the more populous cities along that border, leaving only those aimed at those Israeli cities off of southern Gaza that are already hardened. Fifth, it split Gaza up so that arms and militants could not move from the North to the South without grave difficulty. Sixth, it has forced Hamas' rocket squads into densely packed areas where civilians are FINALLY demanding that rockets not be fired from their midst for fear of Israeli retaliatory strikes. Thus, Israel has reduced Hamas' ability to fire rockets and limited the use of those that they are willing to launch.

The question on the table now is what will happen next. Clearly, Israel has no reason to simply withdraw from Gaza now and numerous reasons not to do so. Hamas is on the defensive and Israel with only slightly more effort can create a situation in which Fatah and the PA can return to Gaza to govern it, removing Hamas from power in fact. This is even more likely with Israel in control of the Egypt/Gaza border. Israel will only relinquish control of that area if it is assured not by word but by an established military regime that the border will be secured from weapons smuggling. It will not trust Hamas at all and therefore will never give Hamas control of that border. Neither does it trust Fatah, under whose rule many of the smuggling tunnels were created to begin with. Israel doesn't trust Egypt to prevent smuggling because it has not in the past. Thus, the only possibility of an Israeli withdrawal will require an international force led by US or US and EU soldiers patrolling that border, NOT under UN auspices. The UN has failed in its efforts in the South of Lebanon with Hizballah, which has rearmed with ease. The US may well need to lead this force and this decision could be a President Obama's first major contribution to Middle East Peace.

I do not believe that this can be accomplished until Hamas no longer has a functional ability to fight Fatah when it returns, which will need to be brought back into Gaza. This means that Israel needs to continue to destroy weapons caches and deplete Hamas' soldiery until Fatah can return without significant threat. Clearly, this plan from the start involved removing Hamas' ability to remain in government of Gaza. Leaving with that accomplished is the only end that makes sense at this time. Other solutions will result in ongoing and worsening conflicts that will not end in peace between the people of Gaza and Israel and will entrench Hamas for decades to come. If there is any solution that will result in a good situation, it does not involve Hamas ruling Gaza either legally or in fact.

My belief is that Israel will have accomplished its military objectives within a week and that it will be ready to negotiate a workable solution when President Obama takes over. Meanwhile, protests are growing around the world and getting uglier all the time. Jews in Europe are feeling very threatened by angry mobs.

-David